IISS: Taiwan clash risks US‑China nuclear war
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- IISS released a 156‑page assessment on May 28 warning that a US‑China conflict over Taiwan could trigger nuclear escalation, with both sides likely to target each other's command, control, communications (C3) nodes.
- IISS says the Asia‑Pacific is at the core of a new nuclear arms race as regional states expand nuclear arsenals and non‑nuclear states develop long‑range conventional strike capabilities.
- Xi Jinping met with Trump in Beijing earlier in May, after which Taiwan expressed concerns about U.S. commitment to its defense.
- Pete Hegseth, U.S. Defense Secretary, is scheduled to speak at the Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30; China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun has not yet confirmed attendance.
- IISS notes there is little public evidence that U.S. and Chinese militaries have guard‑rails or rules of engagement to prevent targeting of each other's C3, ISR infrastructure.
Why it matters: U.S. and Chinese militaries face heightened nuclear risk, as the 156‑page IISS assessment warns, prompting regional allies to rethink deterrence and spur defense spending.
