SportsLine Model Names 2026 Fantasy Sleepers: Likely, Smith
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- SportsLine simulated the NFL season 10,000 times and released its 2026 Fantasy football rankings, sleepers, breakouts, and busts, leaning on a model that predicted De'Von Achane as RB6 last year (he finished RB6 with 1,838 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns).
- Isaiah Likely is the model's top tight-end sleeper, ranked TE9 despite an ADP of 99; he followed coach John Harbaugh from Baltimore to the Giants and has reportedly been a favorite target of quarterback Jaxson Dart with Malik Nabers limited by a knee injury in camp.
- DeVonta Smith is flagged as a wideout sleeper with an ADP of No. 37 after posting a 1,000-yard season in 2025 for a bottom-10 passing offense; with A.J. Brown traded to New England, the model projects Smith as a top-15 fantasy WR.
- Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Malik Nabers are cited as bounce-back candidates after injury-plagued seasons, following the 2025 pattern of Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, and Chris Olave returning from injury to post big years.
- The model's track record includes identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024, and calling Daniel Jones' 2025 breakout season.
- Top 2026 fantasy ADPs (PPR, CBS) open with Jahmyr Gibbs (1.46), Bijan Robinson (1.90), Ja'Marr Chase (4.00), Puka Nacua (4.60), and Jonathan Taylor (5.56) as the first five off the board.
- An unnamed veteran wide receiver is the model's top-10 surprise pick, ranked ahead of stars like CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown — identity withheld behind SportsLine's paywall.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters targeting an edge get two concrete late-round bets the model rates well above consensus: Likely at TE9 vs. an ADP of 99, and Smith as a top-15 WR despite being drafted outside the top 25 at his position — both attached to new offensive roles (Smith as Philly's clear WR1 after Brown's trade, Likely as the Giants' lead tight end). The model's 10,000-simulation methodology has now landed correctly on Achane, Taylor, Stroud, and Daniel Jones, giving the sleepers above a stated track record rather than a hunch.
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