Gas Prices Won't Fall Fast After Iran Deal
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- Trump said "I love the inflation" after the CPI showed inflation hit 4.2% — a three-year high — claiming a peace deal with Iran would bring prices down "like a rock"
- Economists call the phenomenon "rockets and feathers," with FTC research finding retail gas prices rise more than four times faster than they fall during supply shocks
- After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, gas jumped $1.48/gallon in roughly four months but took nine months to fall back to pre-war levels, even after emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases
- The national average gas price is now above $4/gallon for the first time since the 2022 peak
- The EIA raised its 2027 gas price forecast from $2.95 to $3.64/gallon, pricing in war effects more than a year past any plausible peace deal
- The PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year in May — its hottest reading since 2022 — with raw input prices jumping 3.2% in a single month, the largest monthly increase ever recorded
Why it matters: Trump has pitched voters on inflation dropping 'like a rock' once an Iran deal is signed, but the 'rockets and feathers' pattern documented by federal researchers means any price relief will arrive over many months, not days — keeping inflation a live political issue through the November midterms regardless of diplomatic outcomes.
