How Canadians are bracing for the impact of Trump’s trade war — SkimNews
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- US tariffs of roughly 50% on about $20bn of Canadian products — including machinery, textiles and hockey sticks — took effect on August 22 after trade negotiations collapsed.
- Canada retaliated with tariffs of 15–50% on roughly $20bn of US imports covering steel, aluminium, dairy, appliances, clothing and cosmetics, which Prime Minister Mark Carney framed as a "dollar-for-dollar" response.
- Carney accused the US of inserting last-minute demands that were "uneconomic, unfair and undermined the net benefits for Canada" during the failed talks.
- Oxford Economics estimates that only about 0.25% of the average Canadian consumer basket is directly affected by the new tariffs, because many targeted goods are business inputs rather than retail products — though packaging materials like cans, glass and plastic films could push food prices up indirectly.
- Oxford Economics also projects businesses will absorb at least half the counter-tariff cost while households bear roughly 20%, and retail analyst Bruce Winder said shelf prices are likely to rise in the coming weeks as pre-tariff inventory sells through.
- Narrative Research found 76% of Canadian respondents chose a hypothetical $120 CAD all-Canadian grocery basket over a $100 CAD basket likely sourced from the US, and 70% still picked the Canadian basket even when priced at $140 CAD.
- Margaret Chapman, chief operating officer at Narrative Research, said the buy-Canadian sentiment is "not a fleeting sentiment — it's very strong, and it's ongoing, and it's probably set to last."
Why it matters: With roughly $40 billion in tariffs now flowing in both directions and businesses already absorbing at least half the cost, Canadian retailers are nearing the limits of how much they can shield shoppers — making the next several weeks the real test of whether the buy-local movement, backed by 70% of consumers willing to pay a 40% premium, holds up under sustained price pressure.
Ask SkimNews
