Browns vs. Steelers predictions, odds, time: Week 4 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) visit the Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Huntington Bank Field on Thursday Night Football, kickoff 8:15 p.m. ET, with Pittsburgh installed as 2.5-point favorites and the total set at 38.5
- SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, projects the Under hitting in 56% of simulations with 37 combined points, calling for both teams to throw for under 200 yards and no rusher to clear 70 yards
- Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring through three weeks and both finished in the bottom eight of total offense last season, extending a multi-year track record of offensive struggles that underpins the model's lean
- Steelers running back Rico Dowdle (toe) missed practice Monday and Tuesday, potentially affecting Pittsburgh's ground game in a matchup where rushing production is already projected to be limited
- The model entered Week 4 on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks since 2024 and has returned well over $7,000 for $100 players since inception, while road splits favor neither side — Pittsburgh is 4-5 on the road since last September and Cleveland is 4-6 at home
Why it matters: Both teams rank in the NFL's bottom 10 in scoring, and the model projects a tight, low-scoring affair at 37 combined points — meaningful for bettors weighing the 38.5 total in a divisional game. With Dowdle's status uncertain and both offenses statistically anemic, the Under hitting hinges on continued offensive struggles rather than any one team's superiority.
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