Ether down 35% versus Bitcoin in a year: Will the ETH price downtrend continue?
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- Ethereum (ETH) has dropped over 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) in the past year, staying below a multi‑year descending trend line that has blocked every breakout since 2022.
- ETH/BTC fell below its 20‑month EMA near 0.034 BTC after a failed bounce at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 50‑month EMA in August 2025, with a 2026 downside target around 0.0176 BTC (≈40% lower).
- Binance reported ETH reserves rising to 3.62 million ETH (≈24.6% of exchange‑wide Ether) in May, while its Bitcoin reserves declined, indicating higher on‑exchange supply for ETH.
- Strategy and other corporate investors have been accumulating Bitcoin, boosting BTC’s demand and tightening its exchange‑side liquidity, while Ether’s “ultra sound money” narrative has waned.
- CryptoQuant data shows a divergence in exchange reserves, with ETH’s on‑exchange supply increasing and BTC’s supply decreasing.
Why it matters: Traders holding ETH face heightened downside risk as rising on‑exchange supply and a bearish chart pattern point to a 40% price decline, while Bitcoin benefits from tighter liquidity and corporate inflows.
