Traders Predict More Pain for Bitcoin and Ethereum After Monthly Drops Above 20%
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- Myriad traders price 77% odds of Bitcoin dumping to $55,000 before rebounding to $80,000, with that probability jumping 44 percentage points in the last month as bearishness accelerates
- Ethereum sits at $1,576 — just 5.2% above the $1,500 resolution threshold — with Myriad giving 88% odds it drops to $1,500 before climbing to $3,000
- Bitcoin has fallen to $59,511, a 23% monthly drop and nearly 53% off its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080; it briefly dipped below $58,000 Thursday, its lowest level since 2024
- Strategy's STRC preferred equity offering hit an all-time low of $73.62 on Thursday, trading around $77 and down 22% in the last month, while MSTR shares dropped nearly 7% to roughly $88
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt that "STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog," arguing the market fears Strategy may enter a "death spiral" and be forced to sell Bitcoin
- Kalshi prediction markets give Bitcoin a 36% chance of falling below $40,000 in 2026 and Ethereum a 34% chance of dropping below $1,000
Why it matters: Strategy holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, and its STRC preferred shares trading 23% below par — at an all-time low of $73.62 — signals investor fears it may need to liquidate BTC to meet dividend obligations. That forced-sale risk could compound the 23% monthly Bitcoin decline already underway, making one firm's preferred equity arguably more important to BTC's near-term trajectory than macro factors.
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