China's Iran War Gains Fade Amid Energy, Recession Risks
SkimNews Take
Diplomatic friction and energy constraints intensified in tandem, undermining the usual benefit of US strategic overextension: rather than buying Beijing time to advance its contingencies, the crisis narrowed its margin on every front simultaneously.
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- China accused the US of "dangerous and irresponsible" behavior over its Strait of Hormuz blockade and vowed to retaliate against tariff threats, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called China an "unreliable global partner" for stockpiling oil.
- Trump's rescheduled May visit to Beijing — originally planned for March to pursue a trade deal — is now likely to be overshadowed by the war and US intelligence suggesting China may have helped Iran militarily, a claim Beijing denies.
- China buys more than 80% of Iran's oil, with those flows accounting for about 12% of its oil supply; shipments were largely uninterrupted until the US counter-blockade began this week.
- Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said the conflict "deeply undermines China's energy security" and warned Beijing must weigh the consequences of an energy cutoff in any future Taiwan contingency.
- Xi Jinping met the leaders of Spain, Vietnam, Russia, and Abu Dhabi within 48 hours, unveiling a four-point Middle East peace proposal that called for respect for the rule of law while avoiding direct criticism of the US.
- Andrea Ghiselli of the University of Exeter said China initially had something to gain from the war, but "now I think they really want this to end. The Chinese don't want any of this."
Why it matters: China's economy depends on exports for roughly a fifth of GDP and Iranian oil for about 12% of its supply — both now directly jeopardized by the war. With pump prices already rising and recession risk mounting, the strategic opening Beijing enjoyed in the conflict's early days is narrowing fast ahead of Trump's May visit.
