SpaceX Stock Falls Below $140 After IPO Surge
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- SpaceX stock (SPCX) opened at $150 on IPO day, climbed to a $192.50 high the next trading Monday, then dropped another 4% on July 13, 2026 to a low under $140
- By its third trading day, SpaceX had surpassed Amazon by market value to become the fifth-largest publicly traded company
- Alliance Bernstein tracked IPOs that raised $50 million or more over the past 10 years and found the median return was a 10% decline six months after lockup expiration
- One in 10 IPOs in Bernstein's dataset dropped at least 62% in the six months following traditional lock-up expirations, with most failing to revisit their debut highs
- Many pre-IPO SpaceX insiders are locked up until after the company's first quarterly earnings report, with additional tranches carrying separate expiration dates that could add to volatility
- The SpaceX S-1 amendment discloses the company 'may issue additional shares for a variety of corporate purposes,' which some observers read as hinting at a potential Tesla merger and share dilution
- The article benchmarks SpaceX against Tesla's 2021 Hertz-fueled run-up to roughly $407, noting that stock has essentially flatlined four-and-a-half years later
Why it matters: Retail investors who bought SpaceX at $192.50 are already sitting on a ~27% paper loss as SPCX flirts with its $150 IPO price, and the Bernstein data — a 10% median decline and one-in-ten dropping 62% post-lockup — suggests the debut price may function more as a ceiling than a floor. The S-1's explicit warning about additional share issuance adds a concrete dilution overhang on top of the scheduled insider unlock after the first quarterly report.
