Stock bears obliterated as Nasdaq 100 logs top 10 bullish stat of past decade
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- Nasdaq 100 rallied 3.3% to 29,733, climbing within 3% of its June 3 record after a more than 10% intraday decline through last Wednesday.
- S&P 500 extended a four-day gain to just shy of 6%, lifting the benchmark out of a two-month range that had bears convinced their moment was near.
- Out-of-the-money QQQ call pricing jumped 42% on Tuesday — the biggest single-day volatility shift in 5 years and the 9th biggest in a decade, per Nations Indexes' Scott Nations.
- SPY call pricing recorded its 7th-biggest jump in 3 years, and call-buying was so robust that the VIX rose alongside stocks — an occurrence that happens only about 20% of the time, per CNBC and Convex Asset Management.
- Nasdaq 100 options volumes are tracking 18% above July's pace this month, per Nasdaq's Kevin Davitt, citing heightened participation post-FOMC stabilization.
- S&P 500 earnings are on pace to grow 47% in Q2 — the biggest quarterly jump since the 2021 Covid rebound — with a forward 12-month P/E of 19.6, below the 5-year average.
- Invesco Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) added 1.4% Tuesday, bringing its YTD gain to 14% and edging out the cap-weighted S&P 500's 13% advance, as materials and industrials each rose 2%.
Why it matters: Tuesday's gains weren't just mega-cap tech — the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) is now outperforming the cap-weighted index YTD (14% vs 13%), with materials and industrials each up 2%, showing real breadth. Bears who called bubble conditions are now staring down Q2 earnings growth of 47% — the largest since the 2021 Covid rebound — and a 19.6 forward P/E that sits below the 5-year average, giving the rally fundamental cover beyond short-covering.
