Alphabet Stock Gives SpaceX Pre-IPO Exposure
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- SpaceX filed IPO paperwork with the SEC, with a roadshow planned for early June and trading expected to begin this summer
- Alphabet invested $900 million in SpaceX in 2015 for a roughly 7% stake, with unrealized gains from that position adding $8 billion to Alphabet's profit in Q1 2025 alone
- SpaceX's valuation doubled to $800 billion by December 2025 (up from ~$400B), and a merger with xAI has the combined company reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion IPO — which would value Alphabet's stake at over $120 billion, a roughly 13,400% return on its original $900 million investment
- Google Cloud revenue rose 48% in Q4 (third straight acceleration), driven by Gemini models and custom TPUs, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta signing deals to use those chips
- Waymo leads autonomous ridesharing with public robotaxi service in 11 major U.S. metro areas and is testing in 20 more cities; Morgan Stanley estimates it will capture 34% of autonomous vehicle trips by 2032, 9 percentage points ahead of Tesla
- Wall Street estimates Alphabet's earnings will grow 15% annually through 2029; the stock trades at 28 times earnings, and Alphabet has beaten consensus earnings estimates by an average of 15% over the last six quarters
Why it matters: For investors priced out of SpaceX's IPO, Alphabet offers ~7% indirect exposure to a company potentially valued at $1.75 trillion — a stake originally bought for $900 million in 2015 that generated $8 billion in unrealized gains in Q1 2025 alone, backed independently by Google Cloud's 48% growth and Waymo's robotaxi lead over Tesla.
