BoJ Hikes Rate to 1%, Crypto Holds Steady
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- Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to ~1% in a 7-1 vote (effective June 17), the highest level in over three decades, last seen in 1995, with policymakers flagging inflation risks above the 2% target from rising oil prices.
- Bitcoin held near $66,000 (down 1.1% on the day) with total crypto market cap steady around $2.34 trillion (down 1.4%), as Bitcoin futures open interest had already eased, suggesting traders had unwound leveraged positions before the decision.
- A U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal announced the prior weekend had lifted Bitcoin above $65,000 from the low $60,000s before the BoJ move, with a formal signing expected Friday.
- Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, said the yen carry trade "failed to trigger any meaningful disruption" in crypto or global equities, noting investors "refused to panic" because the market has "fully recovered" from the prior carry trade scare.
- Maksim Balashevich, CEO of Santiment, said the hike was already "priced in," dampening its market-moving power.
- Myriad prediction market traders placed a 64% chance on Bitcoin's next major move taking it down to $55,000.
- The BoJ paired the hike with a pledge to step up bond purchases if long-term yields spike, and plans to trim its own bond purchases by ~¥200 billion (~$1.3B) quarterly until early 2027.
Why it matters: Traders who braced for a selloff saw crypto absorb a three-decade-high BoJ rate hike with barely a ripple — a sharp contrast to the August 2024 carry trade scare. Analysts at Tiger Research and Santiment both say the move was priced in, and per Yoon the market has 'fully recovered' from the prior shock, meaning future BoJ hikes lose power to roil crypto unless they drain U.S. liquidity.
