Bitcoin in 'Wait and See Mode'—And That Might Be a Good Thing — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin has not budged more than 6% over the past month per Decrypt data, trading around $81,735 and down 1.2% on the day, while every top-five cryptocurrency failed to move more than 2% over the past week and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads a neutral 47.
- André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, calls the quiet period a constructive sign, says Bitcoin's recovery drawdowns have been less damaging than in previous cycles even as oil, semiconductor stocks and government bonds saw "elevated" volatility, and frames investor behavior as "resilience rather than euphoria."
- Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at GSR, rejects the good-sign reading, attributing the stand-still to "risk-off" sentiment driven by a complex macro situation and fears around AI stocks, with markets staying choppy while that broader caution persists.
- Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, with September CPI rising 0.6%, and its October 28 decision is what traders are waiting on — "until then nobody wants to make a big bet," Koch-Gallup said, while Dragosch called Bitcoin's "wait and see mode" the result of tightening conditions meeting expected slowing growth.
- BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF took in $665.20 million on Monday per CoinGlass data, and Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 last week before quickly finding buyers, though Guzman said that buying has not been consistent enough to drive a sustained rally.
- Jake Koch-Gallup of Blockworks points to three catalysts in the next two weeks — the Fed decision on October 28, an options expiry on October 30 covering $11.69 billion in Bitcoin, and the U.S. midterms on November 3 — and says a Fed hold with continuing ETF inflows would break the market upward, while another hike puts a $75,000-to-$77,000 floor back in play.
- BAT climbed almost 87% to a $263 million market cap over the past month and Collector Crypt jumped 95% to $318 million even as the majors traded sideways, with Koch-Gallup noting that a boring market means opportunities take more work to find.
Why it matters: Traders who took a side during the calm face a compressed decision window: the Fed on October 28, $11.69 billion in Bitcoin options expiring October 30, and U.S. midterms November 3. Dragosch says derivatives price in less volatility than on-chain data, leaving options unusually cheap for both hedging and larger bets.
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