Bitcoin Holds Near $67k as Crash Odds Rise to 35%
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- Bitcoin held steady near $67,000, trading at $67,378 on Monday, up 1.1% in 24 hours and flat for the week despite global equity declines and rising oil prices.
- Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market crash to 35% (from 20%) and cut the chance of a market melt‑up to 5% as oil prices stay above $100 and the dollar posts its steepest weekly gain in a year.
- S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% in Asian trading, while the VIX surged to its highest level since April’s tariff turmoil, reflecting heightened market volatility.
- NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro said only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements correlate with U.S. equities, with the remaining 75% driven by crypto‑specific factors.
- Oil prices above $100 per barrel have pushed inflation concerns, prompting the Federal Reserve’s dual‑mandate dilemma between higher inflation and rising unemployment, according to Yardeni.
- MSCI’s global equity gauge fell 3.7% last week, with Asian markets hit hardest, while U.S. equities showed relative resilience, the S&P 500 down only 2% for the week.
Why it matters: Investors see Bitcoin’s resilience as a rare safe‑haven signal while risk‑off pressure threatens equities, meaning crypto holders may retain value even as stock markets falter, but the 35% crash odds warn of broader portfolio losses if the oil shock persists.
