Gas Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels Until 2027
SkimNews Take
The brief disruption in a critical shipping lane, even when resolved, demonstrates how quickly global energy markets price in geopolitical instability.
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- Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN that gas may not return to its pre-war national average of just under $3/gallon until next year — a timeline President Trump contradicted to The Hill, saying prices will drop faster.
- U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.04 per gallon on Monday per AAA, down from a $4.16 peak hit earlier in the Iran conflict.
- S&P Global analyst Rob Smith said even the most optimistic scenario, with Strait of Hormuz flows recovering quickly, has retail gasoline facing an "uphill battle" to return to pre-war levels until 2027.
- GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said it would take months for prices to reach pre-war levels even if the strait opened fully and permanently immediately, though some states could dip below $3 by year-end.
- Gulf Oil advisor Tom Kloza said the $3 national average is "out of reach" unless crude sinks to $65/barrel, and only lower-cost regions — the Southeast, Great Plains, and Great Lakes — could see sub-$3 prices late this year.
- Persian Gulf production has been cut by millions of barrels per day due to the throttled strait, with reviving output described as lengthy and tricky; Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew warned "residual risk of the conflict breaking out again could depress volumes."
Why it matters: The national average sits at $4.04/gallon, and analysts say even a full Hormuz reopening would take months to filter through refining and retail — while Persian Gulf production cuts of millions of barrels per day add a structural floor. The gap between Trump's faster-drop prediction and his Energy Secretary's longer timeline could become a midterm messaging flashpoint with voters filling up at the pump this summer.
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