SpaceX IPO won’t ‘break’ the bull market. But investors are worried about what comes next
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- SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion in its IPO, the largest public offering ever.
- Gavekal Research says the $75 billion raise equals roughly two weeks of typical S&P 500 equity issuance, and the combined $380 billion raise by SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Alphabet equals about two months of issuance.
- OpenAI and its peers Anthropic and Alphabet have each secured massive private capital—$122 billion, $65 billion, and $84.8 billion respectively—highlighting a broader AI funding surge.
- Truist Wealth analysis of 30 IPOs shows a median 9% decline after one year and average 54% drawdown in the first 12 months, suggesting SpaceX could face steep post‑IPO volatility.
- Nasdaq will fast‑track SpaceX into the Nasdaq 100 with a 3× multiplier weighting based on a $225 billion market‑cap proxy, which could exaggerate index moves as passive funds rebalance.
- Jay Woods warns that retail investors may be left holding the bag in the IPO’s liquidity event, emphasizing the need for cautious entry despite the hype.
Why it matters: Investors—especially retail traders—face heightened risk as SpaceX’s massive IPO could trigger sharp index swings due to Nasdaq’s 3× weighting, while the market’s capacity to absorb the $75 bn raise may limit broader liquidity strain. At the same time, the $380 bn combined fundraising by AI firms signals a surge in capital demand that could intensify competition for investor dollars.
