A $5 billion cluster has formed in bitcoin options. It tells a bullish story
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Deribit options at the $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes hold roughly $5 billion in notional open interest, about 18% of the exchange's $28 billion total BTC options open interest, making them its two most popular contracts.
- Call-to-put ratios at those strikes are heavily skewed bullish — approximately 39,000 calls versus 3,800 puts at $70,000, and 37,900 calls versus just 1,200 puts at $72,000, per Laevitas data.
- A large bull call spread — buying the $70,000 call while selling the $72,000 call — accounts for roughly 49% and 50% of total call open interest at each respective strike, signaling bets on a moderate upswing rather than a moonshot.
- Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said much of the demand for these July 31 expiry topside calls was driven by expectations the CLARITY Act would pass before month-end.
- That thesis is now unwinding — Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year dropped to 38% from 51% after Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the Senate won't pass the bill before its August recess, and traders have trimmed bullish positions in the last 24 hours.
Why it matters: Roughly half of the $5 billion in $70,000–$72,000 call open interest is structured as a bull call spread capped at $72,000, meaning these bullish bets have a built-in ceiling — and the conviction behind them is already cracking as CLARITY Act odds on Polymarket fell 13 points this week, suggesting the positioning may unwind faster than it was built.
