What xG Stats Reveal About USMNT World Cup History
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- USMNT posted "three or four excellent and encouraging performances" at the 2026 World Cup before a "discouraging face-plant" against Belgium, reigniting "Why isn't the U.S. better at soccer?" debates even after pulling in tens of millions of TV viewers.
- Stats Perform xG data going back to 1966 reveals the USMNT's celebrated 1994 knockout-stage run was "very fortunate" — opponents generated 7.0 xG to the Americans' 2.6 despite the US being outscored only 4-3 across the tournament.
- The 1990 World Cup marked a 40-year return to the tournament, and the young, mostly semi-pro squad was overwhelmed, losing 8-2 across the group with matches like the 5-1 loss to Czechoslovakia showing 6.13 xG vs. 0.84.
- Brazil dismantled the 1994 US squad far more thoroughly than the 1-0 scoreline suggests, posting 3.50 xG to the US's 0.13 — even with Leonardo's red card, the US managed only one shot attempt in the match.
- At the 1998 World Cup, the US was outscored 5-1 in a group of death with Germany and Yugoslavia, but generated a respectable 3.3 xG to opponents' 4.5, suggesting the "disappointment" was at least partly bad finishing.
- The 2002 opener against Portugal (3-2 win) was "one of America's greatest World Cup performances," with the US posting 1.73 xG to Portugal's 1.45, though the article notes the eventual quarterfinal exit was also shaped by fortune.
Why it matters: The xG analysis challenges the foundational USMNT narrative that American soccer has steadily progressed since 1994. If the team's most iconic tournament run was built on luck (opponents 7.0 xG to US 2.6), the "developing soccer nation" story the federation and broadcasters have told for three decades is significantly overstated — and the 2026 Belgium collapse becomes a more predictable outcome of that gap.
