BPI projections for the NBA season: Ranking all 30 teams and stacking Finals favorites — SkimNews
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- Oklahoma City Thunder sit atop ESPN's BPI with roughly a 28% chance to win the 2026 NBA title, with the model also ranking them No. 1 on defense at plus-5.7 net points — well clear of the San Antonio Spurs at plus-4.2.
- Golden State Warriors are projected at No. 20 in the current BPI because of Jimmy Butler III's January ACL tear, but would jump to No. 12 at full strength; Joel Embiid is the only other player causing a major gap between current and playoff BPI, with the Sixers at No. 3 in playoff strength when healthy.
- Philadelphia 76ers carry a 52% chance to beat the Boston Celtics in a playoff series per BPI — but only if Embiid is available, and even then their title odds stay around 8-12% because the Thunder and Spurs are projected stronger.
- ESPN's model gives six Western Conference teams an 85%+ chance of making the playoffs, though the author flags injury risk to stars like Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic as a reason those odds may be overconfident.
- Defense, not offense, is the BPI's biggest projected separator this season — a 10.4-point gap between best and worst defenses versus just 8.0 on offense — reshaping which teams the model trusts.
- Under the NBA's new anti-tanking lottery rules baked into the BPI, the Thunder themselves carry about an 11% shot at the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft and roughly 75% odds of a top-10 selection, while the projected-worst Sacramento Kings get only ~7% chance at No. 1.
Why it matters: The model essentially confirms the Thunder as the team to beat entering the season, with their dominant defense the biggest reason; for Philadelphia, an Embiid-in/Embiid-out split (52% series edge vs. Boston, ~8% title odds) makes his availability the single biggest swing variable in the East, while Golden State fans should know the No. 20 ranking reflects Butler's absence rather than a real decline.
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