Polymarket Military Bets Win 51.8% – Insider Edge
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- Anti‑Corruption Data Collective analyzed every settled Polymarket contract from Jan 2021 to mid‑Mar 2026, covering 435,000+ markets and $54.4 billion in volume.
- Polymarket’s military‑and‑defense long‑shot bets won 51.8% of the time, far above the 14% win rate in political markets.
- Venezuela raid bet of $400,000 by a Green Beret underscores alleged insider access.
- Department of Justice is cooperating with Polymarket on the Venezuela case, indicating regulatory attention.
- Solidus Labs found that under 1% of wallets captured roughly half of all Polymarket profits, highlighting extreme profit concentration.
Why it matters: Insider traders—about 1% of wallets—capture roughly 50% of Polymarket gains, while ordinary participants lose to skewed odds; regulators and Polymarket face tighter scrutiny, threatening the platform’s credibility and future liquidity.
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