DSIT sees 6 GW AI data‑centre demand, DESNZ sees far less
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- DSIT forecasts AI datacentres will need at least 6 GW of electricity by 2030, as part of its UK compute roadmap.
- DESNZ projects the entire commercial services sector will grow by only 528 MW between 2025‑2030, implying AI datacentre demand far lower than DSIT’s 6 GW estimate.
- Foxglove filed an environmental impact assessment request with DESNZ in January, prompting DESNZ to point to broader commercial‑services forecasts and note it has no separate datacentre projections.
- Tim Squirrell of Foxglove criticised the government’s “cluelessness” over datacentre environmental impact, calling it alarming.
- Cecilia Rikap of University College London warned the misalignment reflects either incompetence or “magical thinking” and shows corporate control over AI and government.
- DSIT revised its AI‑compute emissions estimate after media scrutiny, raising projected 10‑year greenhouse‑gas output from 0.025‑0.142 MtCO₂ to 34‑123 MtCO₂ (0.9‑3.4% of UK total).
- DESNZ says datacentre emissions are already included in its carbon‑budget modelling and that the AI Energy Council is seeking clean‑power investment for datacentre.
Why it matters: The divergent forecasts mean the UK’s carbon‑budget planning may severely underestimate AI‑driven electricity use, risking overshoot of climate targets and mis‑allocation of clean‑energy resources, while AI firms could face tighter scrutiny and NGOs gain leverage for clearer accounting for policy makers.
