Israel-Hamas war: 3 years on, Gaza peace remains elusive — SkimNews
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Trump's 20-point peace plan took effect in October 2025, ending large-scale fighting and securing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, but a year on the plan is "frozen" with "nothing happening," according to NTU analyst James Dorsey.
- Hamas remains armed and controls parts of Gaza, retaining influence "through various networks" and its role in distributing humanitarian goods, while the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority says it is ready to resume a governing role in the enclave.
- Israel maintains control over large parts of the Strip and retains the ability to carry out military strikes, with a recent attempt to kill Hamas' top leader in Gaza last Saturday and Tuesday strikes that killed at least two Palestinians.
- Netanyahu has declared there will be no Palestinian state while he remains in power, which UCLA's Benjamin Radd called "an electoral survival strategy" ahead of Israel's Oct 27 election, where the prime minister is locked in a tight reelection race.
- The fundamental impasse, according to analysts, is whether Hamas can survive as a political force if it disarms and whether Israel would accept any Palestinian state — a "red line both sides seem to have … not willing to move from," Radd said.
- The US is "the major joker in the deck" and only significant American pressure on Israel can break the deadlock, but analysts said there is "very little indication of Trump being willing" to use that leverage, with Dorsey concluding: "It's going to be Trump who has to twist Israeli arms."
- Dorsey warned that without resolving the Palestinian question the region faces "a festering wound," noting the two-state solution — overwhelmingly endorsed by the UN — is becoming "very difficult, if not impossible," while a one-state solution is "a recipe for civil war."
Why it matters: Netanyahu's Oct 27 election race, where he leads while staking hardline positions, directly shapes whether the peace plan advances. Analysts say only US pressure on Israel can break the deadlock, but Trump shows no willingness to use that leverage — leaving the status quo, with Hamas still armed and Israel still striking, intact.
Ask SkimNews
