SpaceX gains 6% in premarket after record debut. Here's what's driving the valuation debate
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- SpaceX shares rose about 6% in premarket trading Monday, hovering around $170, after closing Friday at $161 — a 19% jump from its $135 IPO price that pushed market capitalization above $2 trillion
- CFRA initiated coverage with a "sell" rating and a $115 12-month price target, roughly 29% below Friday's close, citing "extremely ambitious growth strategy, elevated valuation expectations, and significant capital intensity"
- Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens valued the stock at $63 per share in a June 8 note, calling it "overvalued"
- Bayes Business School lecturer Paulina Roszkowska told CNBC the IPO prospectus "lacks details on governance or execution risks" and questioned whether SpaceX's orbital data center plans amount to "poetry" rather than cash-flow commitments
- SpaceX posted a nearly $5 billion loss in 2025, and its Q1 capex hit $10.1 billion versus $4.1 billion a year earlier, with the majority of that spending directed at artificial intelligence
- NewStreet Research analyst James Ratzer pushed back with a $165 price target, arguing SpaceX has a "10-year lead" in rocket launch and will control 90-95% of global launch capacity within four to five years
- SpaceX merged with Musk's AI startup xAI in February, a key pillar of the bull thesis that skeptics say the IPO prospectus fails to substantiate
Why it matters: With a $2 trillion market cap secured by a 19% first-day pop, SpaceX has priced in extraordinary long-term growth — yet a nearly $5 billion 2025 loss and $10.1 billion in Q1 capex mean investors are betting on Musk's 20-25 year roadmap for orbital data centers and AI integration. The spread between the most bullish target ($165 from NewStreet) and most bearish ($63 from Morningstar) is the widest on a freshly listed mega-cap, exposing how little consensus exists on the math.
