Iran Strikes Jordan; Hormuz, Red Sea Both Under Threat

Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Iran fired missiles at Jordan's Aqaba on Wednesday, with Jordan intercepting four missiles and four drones while two more fell in uninhabited areas, plumes visible from the nearby Israeli city of Eilat.
- The U.S. struck Iran for an 11th consecutive night targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites; Iran's Health Ministry says 11 days of strikes have killed 53 people, including six women and three children, and wounded nearly 600.
- Trump warned on social media that the U.S. will destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant each time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iranian attacks have largely closed — a waterway that carried one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas during peacetime.
- Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, with two Saudi oil tankers already reversing course, opening a second trade chokepoint on top of the Hormuz closure.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate hearing the war has cost $37.5 billion US, up 50% from the $25 billion estimate in late April, while the Pentagon is requesting an additional $70 billion from lawmakers who complain they've been left in the dark on strategy.
- U.S. casualties have risen to 18 troops killed and roughly 430 injured, with 100 injured since July 7 alone, and the U.S. has re-imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in response to the Hormuz attacks.
- Trump signalled U.S. forces could soon target Pickaxe Mountain, an under-construction nuclear site buried deep underground near Natanz that survived the U.S.-Israeli 12-day war against Iran in 2025.
Why it matters: With the Strait of Hormuz already largely closed and Houthis now threatening Red Sea shipping, two of the world's key oil corridors are simultaneously under threat — a structural shock to global energy flows beyond the Middle East. The war's price tag has jumped 50% from $25B in April to $37.5B in Hegseth's testimony, with another $70B requested and bipartisan anger that Congress hasn't been briefed on strategy.



