2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts from Model
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model released 2026 Fantasy football rankings after simulating the NFL season 10,000 times, with Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 1.46), Bijan Robinson (1.83), Ja'Marr Chase (4.11), Puka Nacua (4.51), Jonathan Taylor (5.63) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.20) going off the board first in PPR formats.
- Alec Pierce is the model's top sleeper at ADP around No. 66 — the model ranks him above Justin Jefferson and Maik Nabers after he averaged 21.3 yards per reception (second in the NFL) and signed a four-year, $114 million extension.
- Bhayshul Tuten is flagged as a breakout with an ADP of No. 56 falling to as late as pick No. 94 in some drafts; the Jaguars RB is now atop the depth chart after Travis Etienne joined the Saints, coming off a rookie year with 386 yards and 7 TDs.
- Kenneth Walker III is the model's bust candidate at pick No. 23 average, with the model noting no Kansas City RB has cleared 1,000 rushing yards since 2017 in Andy Reid's pass-first offense, and Walker missed at least one game in each season from 2022-2024.
- Josh Allen is the first QB off the board at pick No. 22, while Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are deadlocked as the first TE around pick No. 27.
- The SportsLine model previously called Daniel Jones as a top-15 fantasy QB entering 2025 (he finished QB17 before a Week 14 injury), Jonathan Taylor's 2021 season, Rachaad White's 2023 breakout, and Isiah Pacheco as a 2025 bust.
- The model has a tight end ranked as a top-8 option ahead of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta, with the identity gated to SportsLine subscribers.
Why it matters: Drafters who follow the model buy low on Alec Pierce (ADP ~66) and Bhayshul Tuten (ADP 56-94), while fading Kenneth Walker III at pick No. 23. KC hasn't produced a 1,000-yard rusher since 2017, directly supporting the bust call. The Daniel Jones track record (top-15 call, QB17 finish, Week 14 injury) is the model's main credibility pitch.
Ask SkimNews
