China Ditches Taiwan Flyovers for Diplomatic Attack on
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- Xi Jinping is shifting from military pressure to diplomatic isolation of Taiwan, with Chinese warplane crossings of the Taiwan Strait's buffer line averaging 5 per day through May 2026 — half the 2025 rate
- China has not conducted major military drills around Taiwan in 2026, and in March sent zero fighter jets near the island for seven straight days, the longest absence on record outside typhoon periods, compared to a peak of 153 planes in a single day in late 2024
- Beijing has punished foreign media that interviewed Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, expelling New York Times reporter Vivian Wang in May, denying AFP access to events and visas after a February interview, and blocking Nikkei's long-term journalist visa applications since May 2025
- China sanctioned New Zealand lawmakers for the first time in June after they visited Taiwan, and last summer launched a cross-continent campaign to close international airspace to Lai's plane during a planned 2026 Africa trip
- Donald Trump has cast doubt on US commitment to Taiwan by branding weapons sales to Taipei a bargaining chip with Beijing, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insist there has been no change in US policy
- Xi hosted KMT opposition chairwoman Cheng Li-wun in Beijing this April for the first time in a decade, and Cheng extended a historic invitation for Xi to visit Taiwan if she 'has the opportunity'
Why it matters: Beijing's tactical pivot from PLA flyovers to journalist expulsions and opposition courtship gives it a cheaper lever to undermine Lai ahead of the 2028 election while reducing the international backlash that peak 2024 flyovers generated, according to Eurasia Group's Jeremy Chan. Trump's branding of Taiwan weapons sales as a Beijing bargaining chip opens diplomatic space for China to test US resolve without military escalation.
