Oil Giants Eye $234 bn War Profits as Prices Hit $100
SkimNews Take
The $234B headline is largely paper profits, since derivative losses and production disruptions are eating into real cash flow — meaning far less capital is actually available to fund the new supply that could relieve the price pressure fueling the windfall.
Get the Energy newsletter
Daily energy & climate — solar, EVs, oil, the policy fights and tech bets shaping the transition. Free.
- The Guardian analysis, using Rystad Energy data, estimates the world’s top 100 oil and gas firms could earn an extra $234 billion in windfall profits by year‑end if oil stays near $100 per barrel.
- Saudi Aramco is projected to gain $25.5 billion, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. $12.1 billion, Exxon Mobil $11.0 billion, and Chevron Corp. $9.2 billion in extra profits.
- Gazprom together with Rosneft and Lukoil is expected to rake in nearly $24 billion in extra war profits by year‑end.
- Brent crude rose to $95.60 per barrel for June delivery, while WTI crude hit $91.87 per barrel for May delivery on Wednesday, reflecting near‑$100 per barrel average.
- Exxon Mobil warned its Q1 2026 profit could be lower due to $3.3‑$5.3 billion in non‑cash timing effects, a 6 % production decline, and a $600‑$800 million impairment from war‑related disruptions, showing higher oil prices don’t guarantee higher net earnings.
Why it matters: The windfall inflates earnings for oil majors and state‑run producers, but firms such as Exxon face near‑term profit hits from timing effects and asset impairments, showing higher oil prices don’t automatically translate into higher net earnings. The disparity underscores that while headline numbers look massive, operational realities can offset them.
