Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction, odds: 2026 Week 4 college football Thursday picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Liberty (2-1) hosts Coastal Carolina (1-2) Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C., where the Flames are 2.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 49.5 and a money line of -137.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which is 22-19 on top-rated CFB picks this season and was upgraded for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal, ran the matchup 10,000 times and projects 55 combined points — with the Over hitting in 54% of simulations.
- The model identifies one side of the 2.5-point spread hitting in more than 70% of simulations, though the specific pick is gated behind SportsLine's paywall.
- Liberty's Deshawn Purdie threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns in the 51-15 win over Ball State, with 12 players combining for 212 rushing yards and three scores; senior Makai Jackson leads receivers with nine catches for 230 yards and three TDs.
- Coastal Carolina freshman quarterback Deuce Bailey has thrown for 826 yards and eight touchdowns this season, with senior Colton Hinton his top target at nine receptions for 196 yards and three scores.
- Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell held the same role at Coastal Carolina from 2019-22 and beat his former team 37-34 in overtime at the 2020 Cure Bowl, his first meeting against the Chanticleers since leaving.
- The Over has cashed in six of Liberty's last 10 games and seven of Coastal Carolina's last 10, including their 2020 bowl matchup.
Why it matters: The model's 22-19 track record on top-rated college football picks and its 2026 transfer-portal upgrade give its projections added credibility, and with one side of the 2.5-point spread clearing in over 70% of 10,000 simulations, bettors get a specific high-confidence lean for a short-favorite non-conference game — one that carries the subplot of Chadwell facing the program he ran from 2019 to 2022.
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