Bitcoin Stuck at $59K–$60K Risks $40K Breakdown
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- Bitcoin has traded in a tight $59,000–$60,000 range for five days, sitting below the levels that triggered rebounds in February and earlier this month, as well as the downward-sloping 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, called the setup "a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls," noting that a similar 2024 consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000 formed in a rising market while the current one is forming in a falling one.
- Kuptsikevich said if the pattern breaks lower rather than resolving higher, the next meaningful step down is around $40,000.
- CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged signs that long-term holders are beginning to capitulate and sell at a loss — a phase that has historically signaled near-term pain even when it marked attractive entry points in past cycles.
- Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, saw its preferred stock STRC hit a record low near $71 last week while its common stock fell 25% on the week to its lowest level since February 2024.
- Strategy's board has authorized management to sell bitcoin from the corporate reserve at any time, and the company has said it may sell more than $1 billion of holdings to shore up its finances — a reversal of founder Michael Saylor's "never sell" mantra.
- Bitcoin is on track to end the second quarter with a 13% loss while U.S. stocks close one of their best quarters in years on AI-spending optimism, reflecting a month-long rotation of capital from crypto into equities; a strengthening U.S. dollar is adding further pressure on dollar-denominated assets.
Why it matters: The largest corporate bitcoin holder, Strategy, has abandoned its "never sell" doctrine and is now authorized to dump more than $1 billion in BTC at any moment — exactly as long-term holders start capitulating and capital rotates toward AI-driven U.S. equities, leaving bitcoin without a clear bid and a thin order book to absorb the selling.
