Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens
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- British Geological Survey analysis identifies millions of UK homes at risk from climate-driven shrink-swell subsidence, with London, Essex, Kent, and a corridor from Oxford to the Wash flagged as most vulnerable
- Anna Harrison, a BGS scientist, called the London risk a "double whammy" — the capital sits on highly shrink-susceptible geology while facing the steepest projected shifts in rainfall and temperature
- Under a medium emissions scenario closest to current global trajectories, more than 1.8 million UK properties could be affected by 2070; a Paris-aligned low scenario cuts that to roughly 500,000
- More than 26% of London properties could be affected by 2070 under the medium scenario, with Camden, Islington, and Barnet the most susceptible boroughs
- The UK recorded £153m in subsidence-related insurance claims in the first half of 2025, following the warmest spring on record and the driest spring in more than 50 years
- Subsidence can cut property values, trigger mortgage refusals from lenders, and require foundation underpinning, utility pipe replacement, and removal of nearby trees to remediate
Why it matters: With £153m in subsidence insurance claims already logged in the first half of 2025, this is no longer a distant threat — it's a current and rising cost hitting London homeowners, insurers, and mortgage lenders. Under current emissions trajectories, more than a quarter of London properties and 1.8 million UK homes overall could face foundation instability by 2070, putting pressure on property values and lending decisions in the capital's most exposed boroughs.
