Bitcoin Tests $81,000 as Rate Hike Fears Linger After Hot Inflation Data — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin dipped below $81,000 on Thursday, trading at $81,002 (down 2.7% over 24 hours), after slipping to an intraday low of $80,444 as September U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year — the largest monthly increase in five months at 0.6%, driven mainly by energy costs tied to the war with Iran.
- Inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for 66 straight monthly readings, the longest streak of the century according to a CNBC analysis.
- Traders' odds of a Fed rate hike this month climbed to 43% from 24% after the CPI report; CME FedWatch put October hike odds at 29.3%, while federal funds futures still point to December for the next increase.
- HashKey's Tim Sun told Decrypt that slowing demand from spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasuries — not macro factors alone — explains the stalled rally, noting that narrowing valuation premiums have made it less attractive for treasuries to raise money to keep buying.
- Algoz's Stephen Wundke expects Bitcoin to trade between $76,000 and $83,000 for the rest of October absent a clear catalyst, adding that peace with Iran "would change that dynamic instantly."
- ZIG Finance's Abdul Rafay Gadit said "the next few weeks are about the Fed, not crypto," arguing the current drop reflects the market repricing rates rather than any change in Bitcoin's underlying story.
- The Fed will announce its next rate decision on October 28, with Polymarket traders pricing a 79% chance of a December hike.
Why it matters: With corporate Bitcoin treasuries — the key marginal buyers for two years per HashKey — losing the cheap-money engine that funded their buying, the next catalyst isn't crypto-native but the Fed's next words. A hawkish October 28 signal could trap BTC in the $76K–$83K range Wundke flagged; a dovish surprise could reignite risk appetite fast.
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