Bitcoin Tests $81,000 as Rate Hike Fears Linger After Hot Inflation Data — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $80,444 on Thursday, trading at $81,002 and down 2.7% over 24 hours and 2.5% over the past week.
- September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% on the month — the largest monthly increase in five months — driven mainly by energy costs tied to the war with Iran.
- October Fed rate hike odds surged from roughly 24% to 43% after the inflation print per the New York Times, while CME FedWatch put the probability at 29.3% and Polymarket traders priced a December hike at 79%.
- Tim Sun of HashKey Group argued the stalled rally owes more to slowing demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries — whose narrowing valuation premiums discourage further buying as borrowing costs rise — than to macro factors alone.
- Stephen Wundke of Algoz projected Bitcoin to trade between $76,000 and $83,000 for the rest of October absent a clear catalyst, noting that 'peace with Iran would change that dynamic instantly.'
- The Fed raised rates to a 3.75%–4% range in September and will announce its next decision on October 28; inflation has now run above the 2% target for 66 straight months, the longest streak this century.
Why it matters: The October 28 Fed decision now carries direct crypto implications: Polymarket's 79% odds on a December hike mean Bitcoin's $76K–$83K range only breaks if the Fed signals it can look through sticky inflation. As Sun warned, thinning premiums at corporate treasuries are already denting marginal demand — meaning the next leg of ETF and treasury buying, not just macro data, will determine whether Bitcoin holds the low end of that band.
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