Israel Strikes Iran Despite Trump's 'I Call the Shots'
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- Trump told the Financial Times 'I call the shots. I call all the shots' on the Iran war, but Israel proceeded with retaliatory strikes on Iran after Tehran fired 11 ballistic missiles at Israel (all intercepted, no casualties or infrastructure damage reported)
- Israel and Iran traded fire for the first time since a truce began in early April, triggered by Israeli strikes in Beirut on Sunday that Trump said he was 'not happy' about; Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles in response and warned of 'far more severe and crushing measures' if aggression continues
- Iran has made any peace deal contingent on a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, a linkage Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged, saying Tehran wants to 'mix it all together' rather than keep the conflicts separate
- Netanyahu faces strong domestic pressure to keep fighting Hezbollah, with 59% of Israelis supporting intensified operations per an INSS poll released in late May, and residents in northern Israel — which has borne the brunt of Hezbollah's attacks — demanding a tougher approach
- Trump reportedly cursed at Netanyahu and called him ungrateful during a recent phone call about Lebanon, as the Iran war has tanked his approval numbers ahead of November's midterm elections and he is searching for an off-ramp
- Iran is leveraging the Strait of Hormuz stalemate and related energy crisis alongside Israel's Lebanon offensive as bargaining chips, establishing 'a new equation in the Middle East' in which Israeli attacks on Hezbollah can trigger Iranian strikes on Israel, per INSS researcher Ofer Shelah
Why it matters: Trump wants to declare the Iran war over before the November midterms, but Netanyahu's political survival depends on continuing the fight against Hezbollah — a conflict 59% of Israelis want intensified. With Iran explicitly tying any peace deal to a Lebanon ceasefire and Israel ignoring Trump's pleas, the off-ramp Trump needs is being blocked by the very ally he can't discipline.
