10‑Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.69% as Inflation Rises
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- 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.19% on Tuesday, the highest level since July 2007.
- 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.69% on Tuesday, a peak not seen since January 2025, before easing to 4.60% the following day.
- April inflation rose at its fastest pace in almost three years, driven by surging oil and gas prices, prompting markets to see little chance of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and an increased probability of a rate hike per CME FedWatch.
- Mortgage rates climbed, with the average 30‑year mortgage rate at 6.36% on Wednesday, up from 5.98% at the end of February, according to Freddie Mac.
- Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said rising yields give investors alternatives to equities that did not exist during the ultra‑low‑rate era, naturally placing pressure on highly valued sectors.
- Yardeni Research said the economy and corporate earnings remain resilient, the bull market isn’t at risk from the bond selloff, but they will start to worry if the 10‑year yield significantly breaches 5.00%.
Why it matters: Higher Treasury yields lift mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, while giving investors higher‑yield alternatives that pressure high‑valued equity sectors. Homebuyers face steeper loan costs, and equity‑heavy portfolios feel pressure as investors shift to higher‑yield bonds. Investors see the Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, tightening financial conditions.
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