Trump's China trade war at crossroads before May Xi summit
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- Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping in May during his first visit to China in eight years, with the trip delayed to mid-May as the Iran war continued.
- China ended 2025 with a record trade surplus, redirecting exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America as a decline in exports to the US accelerated.
- The US Supreme Court rejected Trump's global tariff regime in February, but Trump indicated he would still use tariffs, reshaping leverage ahead of the summit.
- In March, the US launched new Section 301 unfair-trade probes into Chinese industries, and China responded with reciprocal investigations.
- US and Chinese negotiators held a sixth round of "constructive" trade talks in Paris, with Bessent and Greer meeting Vice Premier He Lifeng and negotiator Li Chenggang.
- The October 2025 Busan meeting between Trump and Xi produced a trade truce under which Washington would trim tariffs and Beijing would target fentanyl, resume US soybean purchases, and pause rare earth export curbs.
Why it matters: China ended 2025 with a record trade surplus despite tariffs exceeding 100%, and the Supreme Court knocked down Trump's global tariff regime in February. The May summit tests whether "managed tensions" can hold without his preferred trade weapon, after six rounds of talks yielded only short-term truces.
