2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship as the favorite at +480 via FanDuel, with Rory McIlroy next at +1500 and Xander Schauffele and Sam Burns tied at +2000
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and nailed 17 majors entering the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, including the 2026 Masters and the 2025 PGA Championship and Open Championship
- Xander Schauffele is a surprising fade in the model's projections — despite third-lowest odds at +2000 and a T2 finish at this event in 2024, the model does not have him cracking the top 10 this week
- Sam Burns is a model favorite as a top-3 contender at +2000, buoyed by T7-or-better finishes at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open, and Open Championship and strong metrics of 12th on tour in strokes gained: total and third in strokes gained: putting
- TPC Southwind hosts the no-cut opener of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, with the top 70 players competing for a $20 million purse and quadrupled points, and only the top 50 advancing to the BMW Championship
- The model is also targeting a longshot at +3000 or higher to make a strong run up the leaderboard
Why it matters: The FedEx Cup Playoffs opener carries a $20 million purse and quadrupled points, meaning a single week's results can dramatically reshape the standings before the field is cut from 70 to 50. Bettors using SportsLine's model — which has correctly called 17 majors — get actionable divergences from the market price, specifically fading Schauffele at inflated odds and backing Burns despite his mid-tier pricing.
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