Arab publics favor China, Iran, Russia over US
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- Arab Barometer polling across Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian territories, Syria, and Tunisia (August–November 2025) found that people have lost nearly all confidence in a US-led regional order and now regard China, Iran, and Russia more favorably than the United States and, often, Europe.
- Trump's regional foreign policies draw unfavorable views from roughly 76%–88% of respondents in Iraq, Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories; the two outliers are Morocco (63% favorable) and Syria (61%), gains the article attributes to Trump's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and his support for Syria's new government.
- China's favorability in 2025 ranges from 37% in Syria to 69% in Tunisia; Russia outperforms the US in six of the eight countries surveyed, and Iran's favorability has jumped 20 points in Iraq and 12 points in the Palestinian territories over the past five years — overtaking the US in a majority of countries.
- Xi Jinping's Middle East policy approval has surged 26 points in Tunisia and 25 points in Jordan and the Palestinian territories since 2021–22, while Vladimir Putin's support has climbed 33 points in Morocco, 20 in Jordan, and 17 in Tunisia despite his invasion of Ukraine.
- Ali Khamenei's foreign policy approval has shifted from overwhelmingly negative to mixed across the region, rising 29 points in Tunisia and 20 points in Iraq and the Palestinian territories over five years — even as majorities still call Iran's nuclear program and regional influence a critical threat.
- Arab publics overwhelmingly see the US as siding with Israel over the Palestinians, a view held by 86% of respondents in Egypt and Jordan, 84% in the Palestinian territories, 78% in Lebanon, 71% in Syria, 69% in Tunisia, and 58% in Iraq.
- The article warns that the polling was conducted before the latest US-Iran war, meaning Arab governments — constrained by public opinion and fearful of mass protests — face growing domestic risk in cooperating openly with Washington, and could drift toward an axis of autocracies the US helped delegitimize.
Why it matters: The survey was taken before the current US-Iran war, which the authors say will only harden anti-American sentiment, meaning Arab leaders face rising domestic costs for open alignment with Washington. The US now risks permanently ceding the Arab world not because China, Iran, or Russia offer an attractive model — publics still see Iran's nukes as a critical threat — but because US standing has collapsed over Gaza, giving adversaries influence by default.
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