Oil Tops $110 as Wall Street Braces for CPI
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- U.S. crude topped $110 a barrel on Thursday after earlier settling above $100 for the first time since 2022, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stalled amid the ongoing conflict.
- S&P 500 posted a gain in the holiday-shortened week, snapping a five-week losing streak, but the benchmark closed its worst-performing quarter since 2022 and remains down nearly 6% from its late-January all-time high.
- March CPI, due April 10, is expected to climb 0.9% month-over-month per a Reuters poll, with BNP Paribas saying "the first stage of oil price pass-through will have arrived in March via motor fuel."
- U.S. gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon this week for the first time in more than three years, reflecting crude's roughly 90% jump since the start of 2026.
- War-driven inflation concerns have led markets to largely rule out interest rate cuts this year, with the Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes (Wednesday) and February PCE data also on the calendar.
- Q1 earnings season kicks off in mid-April, with S&P 500 companies expected to post a 14.4% year-over-year earnings rise per LSEG IBES; Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands report next week.
Why it matters: With U.S. crude up roughly 90% year-to-date and gasoline back above $4/gallon, the March CPI print on April 10 is the first hard data on how deeply the energy shock has flowed into consumer prices. A reading near the expected 0.9% monthly jump would reinforce the market's view that rate cuts are off the table, making the 14.4% Q1 earnings growth forecast the next key support level for any equity rebound.
