Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets extinct? Five potential shockers in 2026 that could end the drought — SkimNews
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- Power Four teams have won 125 straight games against FCS opponents, with the last upset being Sacramento State's 30-23 win over Stanford in Week 4 of the 2023 season.
- Since the first full year of the NIL era in 2022, FBS power conference teams are 223-2 (.991) against FCS opponents, compared to 747-38 (.952) across the 16 prior seasons, a shift the source attributes to the transfer portal and NIL.
- North Dakota State, the most successful FCS program of the era at 6-4 against power-conference opponents since 2006, is leaving for the FBS in 2026 alongside Sacramento State, eroding the pool of proven upset-makers.
- South Dakota State opens at Northwestern as the top upset candidate — the Wildcats have lost three times to FCS teams since 2006, and the Jackrabbits return QB Chase Mason from back-to-back national championship squads.
- Youngstown State brings reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard (3,234 pass yards/26 TDs, 1,468 rush yards/27 TDs in 2025) to Kentucky for new coach Will Stein's debut.
- North Dakota visits Nebraska after nearly upsetting Kansas State in 2025 (42 seconds from a win), with dual-threat QB Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, an Omaha native, back.
- Tennessee Tech (11-2 in 2025) travels to Mississippi State in November, a potential trap game if the Bulldogs are worn down by one of the toughest schedules in the country.
Why it matters: Since the NIL era began in 2022, Power Four teams are 223-2 (.991) against FCS opponents, up from .952 the prior 16 years — meaning the transfer portal and name-image-and-likeness deals have widened the talent gap each season, shrinking the realistic paths for an FCS program to pull an upset. With NDSU and Sacramento State — two of the most successful upset-makers — themselves leaving the subdivision, the shrinking pool of credible FCS threats makes a 2026 stunner a longer shot than ever.
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