2027 NFL Draft: Dante Moore's early struggles and why history tells us to watch Drew Mestemaker — SkimNews
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- Drew Mestemaker produced 426 total yards (317 passing, 109 rushing) with two passing TDs and one rushing score to lead Oklahoma State to a 39-31 upset of previously favored Oregon in Week 2.
- Dante Moore, the author's preseason 2027 QB1 who would have been the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 draft, went 3-of-4 for 94 yards and two TDs on throws of 20-plus yards but just 1-of-5 for 6 yards on attempts past his first read against Oklahoma State.
- Moore's 2025 PFF splits — a 92.6 clean-pocket passing grade dropping to 51.0 under pressure and a 63.5 second-read passing grade — previewed the same weaknesses that have shown up in his first two 2026 games.
- The author's proprietary First-Round Readiness Score (FRED) ranked Mestemaker third in the 2027 class at 40.4 entering the year versus Moore at 19.2, against a historical first-round threshold of 50.
- Miami's Darian Mensah (39.4 FRED, 4th in class) and USC's Jayden Maiava (43.4 FRED, 2nd) posted strong early returns, with Maiava throwing five touchdowns and going 3-of-3 with three scores on deep balls in Week 2 against Louisiana.
- South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers went 10-of-25 for 96 yards with an 0-of-3 mark on deep throws against Towson, leaving the same years-long question about whether his pocket passing can match his physical tools.
Why it matters: Moore entered 2026 as the clear 2027 QB1 and a near-lock top-2 pick, yet the author's FRED model already rated him 19.2 against a 50-point historical first-round cutoff while putting three peers ahead of him. With Mestemaker — a North Texas transfer facing his first Power 4 opponent — outplaying Moore in a head-to-head, NFL evaluators now have statistical and on-field reasons to treat a once-consensus top prospect as a genuinely contested evaluation rather than a temporary slump.
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