Toy Story 5 Targets $275M Global Opening, Franchise
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- Toy Story 5 is projected to bow to $140M domestic across 4,425 theaters and $275M worldwide — a franchise record that would top Toy Story 4's $120.9M domestic and $249M WW debut (like-for-like), with all PLFs and Imax behind the launch.
- The domestic forecast was revised down from $150M; presales of $25M are running slightly ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at the same point, but the Juneteenth Friday is the swing factor that will determine Saturday's hold.
- Andrew Stanton (Wall-E, Finding Nemo/Dory) directs his first Toy Story film, with Jessie taking over as the central toy after the Woody and Buzz spotlight entries in the franchise's history.
- Critical reviews land at 93% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes — the lowest in the franchise but still 'very good,' trailing the 100% marks for Toy Story and Toy Story 2 and the 97% for Toy Story 4.
- The international rollout covers 87% of the footprint including China, but Japan shifts to July 3 and Germany to July 23 to let Illumination/Universal's Minions & Monsters clear those markets first.
- Counterprogramming includes A24's The Death of Robin Hood (Hugh Jackman, Jodie Comer) at 1,760 theaters targeting single-digit millions, and Neon's Sundance acquisition Leviticus debuting at 1,075 theaters with 94% RT.
- Universal/Amblin's Disclosure Day looks for a -55% second-weekend hold to around $20M, having cumed $48.7M through four days.
Why it matters: For Disney/Pixar, a $275M global opening would smash the franchise's $249M mark set by Toy Story 4 by roughly 10% and re-establish Toy Story as Pixar's most reliable theatrical anchor — but the $10M downward domestic revision signals that even a 93% RT, female-skewing sequel tracking ahead of Super Mario Galaxy presales isn't immune to the softening 2026 marketplace. With Germany and Japan delayed until late July, the film's full global ceiling won't be visible for weeks.
