Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
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- Trump proposed a 20% transit fee on all vessels — including those of US allies — passing through the Strait of Hormuz to reimburse US costs, announced in a Monday morning social media post.
- Trump reversed the toll plan within 24 hours, offering instead that he would strike "trade and investment deals" with Gulf allies in exchange for safe passage.
- Trump declared the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "completely dead" via Truth Social at 10:16 ET on Tuesday, simultaneously announcing a resumed naval blockade of Iranian shipping and new US military strikes across Iran.
- Iran countered by intensifying attacks on US allies and commercial shipping in the region, grinding Strait of Hormuz traffic to a near standstill.
- Marco Rubio had condemned Iran's own plan to charge Hormuz fees just last month, declaring "No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway."
- Oil prices jumped nearly 10% on Monday after Trump's blockade announcement — the biggest one-day increase in six years — though Trump separately received news that US consumer prices were dropping.
- Rosemary Kelanid of Defense Priorities called the conflict a "war of attrition" and predicted "the most likely ending is a non-ending," as Trump weighs strikes on the fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear research site south of Tehran.
Why it matters: Trump's 24-hour Hormuz toll reversal — a policy he'd floated repeatedly during the war — exposes the absence of a clear strategy after four months of fighting: a militarily degraded Iran still controls the chokepoint, and a nearly 10% one-day oil spike threatens the consumer-price easing Republicans need ahead of November's midterms. The MOU's "no charge" Hormuz provision is now void, and Trump's next military option, the fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, carries uncertain payoff against tunnels deep beneath granite.
