Air raids, conscripts and China: How Myanmar’s military is regaining ground
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- Myanmar's military retook Falam in April after a six-month assault involving hundreds of air strikes and roughly 1,000 ground troops, with three more Chin State towns falling within weeks and the military claiming control of the entire northern state by late May.
- China brokered ceasefires that pulled two major opposition forces — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army — out of fighting, and pressed the United Wa State Army to stop selling weapons to resistance groups, contributing to ammunition shortages nationwide.
- Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as president in April after tightly controlled elections with major opposition parties barred, even as his military opened new operations in Chin, Kachin, Kayin and Rakhine States and called for peace talks.
- Myanmar's conscription drive has added close to 150,000 troops to combat ranks since 2024, many barely trained but numerous enough to grind forward on multiple fronts.
- The Myanmar military's air campaign carried out 520 strikes from April through June, hitting 87 townships and killing at least 314 civilians including 41 children, with Chin State hit hardest at 122 strikes.
- ISP-Myanmar reports the military has retaken 22 of the 101 towns it lost after the 2021 coup — only 9% of lost territory, but the areas include key trade corridors linking border regions to central Myanmar.
- ACLED data shows conflict deaths have surpassed 100,000, while the UN estimates 3.9 million people are displaced and one in three people requires humanitarian assistance.
Why it matters: The military has retaken 22 of 101 lost towns, with Falam alone restoring control of Chin State's only airport and a key India-border trade route. Chinese diplomatic pressure has neutralized two of the opposition's strongest ethnic armies — a shift analysts say leaves Myanmar facing a protracted war of attrition rather than an existential defeat for either side.
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