Prediction market odds on Tesla-SpaceX merger are above 50% for early 2027 — SkimNews
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- Kalshi prediction market odds for a Tesla-SpaceX merger before March jumped to 56% by Friday morning, up from 29% the prior day, with similar climbs for April and May contracts.
- Barclays released a note Wednesday framing a potential merger as an AI vertical integration, with analyst Dan Levy expecting an announcement before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must occur no later than Dec. 6, 2026.
- Barclays cited Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus combining with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard as the integration thesis, with the Terafab semiconductor project (relying on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI) as a potential key driver.
- Tesla showed off its long-delayed Roadster on Thursday, a vehicle that relies on SpaceX technology to enable it to hover, with a demonstration video recorded at SpaceX's Texas test site.
- Elon Musk referenced "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX on Tesla's latest earnings call, fueling the merger speculation.
- Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its early November earnings release, boosting its 12-month price target by 20% to $275.
Why it matters: A major bank formally modeling a Tesla-SpaceX merger — and prediction markets crossing 50% — signals Wall Street is treating the deal as a near-term possibility rather than a hypothetical, with a concrete Dec. 6, 2026 deadline for Tesla's annual meeting setting the announcement window.
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