EIA Hikes 2026 Brent Forecast to $96 Amid Hormuz Closure
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- EIA raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $96 a barrel (from $79) and now expects WTI to average $87 a barrel, up from $74 in its March outlook.
- Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels a day of crude production in March, with that figure projected to rise to 9.1 million barrels a day in April.
- Global oil inventories are now expected to draw down by 300,000 barrels a day on average this year, wiping out the agency's previously expected inventory builds.
- Shut-ins are expected to fall to 6.7 million barrels a day in May and return to near prewar levels by late 2026, assuming the conflict ends after April and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes.
Why it matters: Brent's revised forecast — a $17 jump to $96 — quantifies the cost of up to 9.1 million barrels a day of Middle East production being taken offline in April. The EIA's reversal, from expected inventory builds to a 300,000 barrel-per-day draw, signals sustained price pressure for consumers and refiners through at least the spring, even under the agency's base case of a swift Hormuz reopening.
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