War, tariffs and China: What the US midterms mean for the Asia-Pacific — SkimNews
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- Asia-Pacific governments and businesses want “enormous changes” during Trump’s remaining term to his Iran war, tariffs and security guarantees, even though Tuesday’s US midterms are unlikely to deliver them; Joshua Kurlantzick says regional demands include a clearer US presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
- Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Gulf oil and gas flows that Asia-Pacific had heavily depended on, leaving the Philippines—whose crude imports are more than 90% from the Gulf—under a national energy emergency since March.
- ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reports that soaring fuel costs drained foreign-exchange reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam spent heavily on fuel subsidies to shield consumers.
- Congress can formally declare war, but Trump has ignored resolutions directing US forces to withdraw from hostilities and can veto legislation restricting military operations or cutting military funding; overriding that veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, and Democrats are almost certain to fall short. Steven Okun expects a Democratic Congress to investigate the eight-month conflict and hold oversight hearings rather than change its course.
- Trump administration shifted to new tools after the Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs in February: Cambodia had faced 49%, Laos 48%, Vietnam 46% and Myanmar 45%; in July, it imposed 10% and 12.5% levies on goods from 60 partners—including China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations—over alleged forced-labor imports.
- Stephen Olson argues that a strong electoral rebuke of “Trumpism” could embolden the Republican Party’s pro-free-trade wing, while a Democratic-controlled Congress could seek carve-outs and exceptions for Southeast Asian exporters; he places deeper trade-policy change at the 2028 presidential election.
- Congress, whichever party controls it, is expected to pass the Remote Access Security Act, Chip Security Act and MATCH Act, extending controls over remote access, AI-chip locations and allied chipmaking equipment to keep advanced technology from China; Trump has held off approving a $14bn Taiwan arms package—the largest ever for Taipei—to preserve the fragile trade truce.
Why it matters: For the Philippines, which sources more than 90% of its crude imports from the Gulf, the Iran war has produced a national energy emergency since March. Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor have lost foreign-exchange reserves to fuel costs, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam spent heavily on subsidies; congressional checks are unlikely to reverse those pressures quickly.
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