Rinkevics Warns Russia's Appetite for NATO Risk Is Growing — SkimNews
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- Latvia's President Edgars Rinkevics warned that Russia's 'appetite for risk is increasing,' citing sabotage incidents in Spain, Germany, and Estonia, plus a failed drone attack at Germany's Leipzig airport in August.
- Latvia signed an agreement with Ukraine in June to bring in anti-drone specialists after two Ukrainian drones pushed off course by Russian electronic warfare struck its territory in May—an incident that prompted the resignation of the Latvian prime minister.
- Latvian officials say shooting down drones currently requires fighter jets firing expensive missiles, and Rinkevics conceded that 'no country is able to fight drones 100 percent.'
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in September that Russia intended to strike NATO members with drones or missiles in a 'provocative attack' designed to test the alliance's mutual defense commitment.
- NATO doctrine already allows that sabotage causing casualties may trigger Article 5, but Rinkevics flagged the investigative burden of proving Russian involvement and noted Article 4 consultations would come first.
- Russia is exploiting electoral windows in major countries—US midterms, French elections next spring, Italian and Polish votes—to create uncertainty about NATO support for Ukraine, Rinkevics said.
- Latvia holds parliamentary elections on October 3, with Rinkevics identifying cyberattacks and 'accidental' drone provocations as Russia's primary hybrid threats and noting the country has not seen a huge level of Russian interference so far.
Why it matters: Rinkevics's warning crystallizes a defining NATO dilemma: a sabotage attack causing casualties on alliance soil forces the bloc to choose between triggering Article 5 and risking a divided response, or accepting ambiguity and emboldening Moscow. The proof problem—linking attacks to Russia—complicates the threshold, and Latvia's October 3 elections give Moscow a near-term window to probe the alliance.
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