US Cannot End Myanmar War Without Beijing's Help
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- Myanmar's civil war, now heading into its sixth year since the February 2021 coup, has displaced 3.6 million people and left the Tatmadaw controlling only about one-fifth of the country—half the territory held by opposition forces.
- China is the junta's principal weapons supplier, has blocked UN arms embargo proposals, and has helped empower Burma's air force to conduct airstrikes on populated areas including markets, schools, hospitals, places of worship, and displacement camps.
- Min Aung Hlaing, who staged the 2021 coup after being denied the presidency and later anointed himself president, was hosted by both Xi Jinping and India's leadership in June, with Xi pressing border insurgents to halt attacks on the regime to protect oil and gas pipelines.
- Beijing arrested American citizen Min Zin, who heads the Institute for Strategy and Policy–Myanmar in Thailand, on espionage charges—bringing the conflict directly into American attention.
- The People's Defense Force and ethnic armed organizations, including predominantly Christian Kachin, Chin, and Karen insurgents, continue gaining territory and pushing the Tatmadaw onto the defensive in the Bamar heartland with advances toward Mandalay.
- The author urges President Donald Trump to engage Beijing on Myanmar, warning that economy-wide sanctions targeting the energy sector would hurt civilians more than the junta and would not collapse a regime sustained by Chinese backing.
Why it matters: China's role as the junta's principal arms supplier, diplomatic shield, and pipeline protector means that without engaging Beijing, Washington has no viable path to end a war that has displaced 3.6 million people and left the Tatmadaw—despite extensive Chinese backing—controlling just one-fifth of Myanmar's territory.
