U.S. Treasury yields ease as investors await fresh jobs data, Fed comments — SkimNews
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- 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.943% in early trading, with the 2-year down 1 bp to 4.741% and the 30-year dropping 2 bps to 5.272%
- ADP weekly employment figures, due at 1:15 p.m. ET, are the next major data point investors are watching
- Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is set to deliver remarks at 10:20 a.m. ET at the NY Fed Treasury Market Conference, with Governor Michael Barr scheduled to speak Wednesday at a Chicago housing affordability summit
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is "especially attuned to elevated inflation in service-sector industries" and concerned that AI data center construction is "raising aggregate output beyond what the economy can absorb"
- Goolsbee noted forecasters have repeatedly pushed back the timeline for when inflation was expected to peak and fall — from Q4 2025 originally to "sometime in 2027"
- Oil prices rose after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines will be shut down from Wednesday, with Brent up 1% to $101.53 a barrel and WTI up 0.7% to $96.45
Why it matters: Traders watching the 4.94% 10-year yield need ADP's weekly employment print and Jefferson's remarks to gauge whether service-sector inflation and AI-driven capacity concerns — which Goolsbee explicitly flagged — will shape the Fed's next stance. With the 30-year at 5.27%, even small yield moves shift borrowing costs across corporate and government debt.
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