Markets Shrug Off Iran War as Consumers and Hungry Pay
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Global stock markets staged a strong recovery after an initial five-week selloff triggered by the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, with the Dow gaining nearly 19%, the S&P 500 up about 22%, and the Nasdaq surging 27% since the late-March bottom; the IMF attributed the resilience to AI-driven enthusiasm offsetting war drag.
- Brent crude oil jumped from a prewar ~$72/barrel to as high as nearly $120, easing but still up about 20%; the IATA projects jet fuel will average 70% more than 2025, prompting airlines to slash flights—Lufthansa Group cut 20,000 short-haul routes and Spirit Airlines "evaporated."
- Electric vehicle sales hit records outside the U.S. and China—Singapore +110%, New Zealand +180%, Colombia +300%—and supply-chain firm Sphera counts 26 countries and regions rolling out new clean energy and electrification measures in response to the war.
- Fertilizer prices peaked 44% above prewar levels in April, hitting farmers mid-planting and risking next year's harvests; UN World Food Programme acting director Carl Skau testified that "an oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan" with tens of millions at risk of hunger.
- The Trump family's business interests have profited from the war: Powerus, being taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., won an Air Force interceptor contract worth as much as $90 million; 1789 Capital, which Don Jr. joined days after the 2024 election, holds stakes in Anduril (up to $2 billion in Kuwait drone sales), SpaceX, and Firehawk Defense.
- President Trump's personal portfolio, run by outside managers, includes Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman; Democrats released a report this week saying his oil and gas stock gains have reached as much as $15.5 million, though a White House spokeswoman said there are "no conflicts of interest."
Why it matters: The war has cost the U.S. tens of billions and shaved an estimated hundreds of billions from projected global output, yet investor wealth and Trump-connected defense contractors captured the upside. Consumers pay at the pump, farmers are cutting fertilizer and borrowing against next year's soil, and the UN is warning of mass hunger in Asia and Africa—all while the president's family wins contracts flowing from the conflict.
Ask SkimNews
